Will India Be The Next China?
11 Mar 2016: In recent months, a consensus view has been forming that India will be replacing China as the center of the world’s oil demand growth. In the most recent Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the IEA describes the Indian demand outlook as “particularly favorable”, with 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) of demand forecast to be added to 2021, an average annual increase of 4.2%. This is even one of the more conservative forecasts. According to other analysts, India’s development has characteristics that are similar to those of China 10-15 years ago. As a reminder, China’s oil demand experienced a compound annual growth rate of 7.75% between 2000 and 2005. If India were to start growing at those rates, this would provide a significant boost to both oil and shipping markets.
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