TradeWinds: What’s Driving Orders For New Breed Of Ammonia Giants

February 21, 2025 Poten & Partners, a ship and & commodities broker, forecasts 300m tonnes per year in ammonia demand in 2030 and 735m tonnes in 2050. That is one of three very different scenarios in a forecast by Aline Ingram, Poten’s senior consultant for clean fuels and chemicals. In a conservative case, based on current policies, 222m tonnes, are expected to be traded in 2030. In the most optimistic case, based on what countries would really need to do to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, 735m tonnes of ammonia demand is expected. “All of this new demand is regulatory based,” Ingram said. “Our base case is driven by the nations’ pledges to meet net zero, which are quite under what is required to meet net zero by 2050. You’ve got some countries that do not pledge to meet net zero before 2060 or 2070.”

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