Tradewinds: Iranian Fall-Out Positive

“Last week, Poten & Partners suggested the tanker sector should not expect a rush of Iranian crude – or of the country’s idled VLCC fleet – into the market if sanctions are lifted. “Even if restrictions are lifted in the coming months, impacts to the shipping markets may be more muted than it would initially seem,” Poten said in a research report today. “Poten’s researchers say that satellite positions show that just 16 of the VLCCs are being used for storage. That means NITC vessels would add just 2.5% to 3% of the VLCC market, rather than the 6% that some fear, if the vessels used as storage returned to service. “Furthermore, the vessels will have to be brought out of near lay-up conditions, which will take additional time and money. As such, it is unlikely that these 16 vessels will enter the market at one time,” Poten said.”