The Rumor Mill

A single act of self immolation in Tunisia over two months ago has been attributed to starting the current blaze of revolution in the Middle East. Details of the “Jasmine Revolution” spread quickly, however media reports have been characterized by uncertainty more than anything else. Speculation and hearsay have been broadcasted along with eyewitness accounts, and crude oil markets have seemingly responded to each new nugget of gossip with knee-jerk reactions. Initially, the response of petroleum markets to the situation in the Arab world seemed speculative and disproportionately strong, as protests had not resulted in any significant interruption to crude oil supply. That was until the spark ignited Libya, leading to the nation declaring force majeure on some 1.2 million barrels per day of light sweet crude oil exports. Download here