The Force Awakens

18 Dec 2015:  U.S. crude oil exports will change the oil and tanker market.  In the highly unlikely scenario that you did not hear about it, the new Star Wars movie is opening in the U.S. this weekend and Congress passed a bill to lift the 40-year ban on U.S. crude oil exports. The potential for U.S. crude exports is a big deal and within a few days many articles and opinion pieces have come out to explain what this means for oil prices, refining margins, the WTI/Brent spread and many other factors. Most pundits seem to agree that the impact on the oil markets will be limited in the short-term as the world is awash in crude and the narrow WTI-Brent spread currently makes U.S. crudes uncompetitive in the export market. But what will happen in the medium to long-term? In this brief, we will analyze a few possible scenarios, and attempt to address some outstanding questions. Download here