Shrugging-off the R-word

In the international businesses of oil and shipping, there is certainly a great deal of international travel. The weakening U.S. dollar takes on a somewhat personal significance as travelers encounter exchange rates on a day-to-day basis. While the strength of the currency is just one component of the economic picture, other drivers have led prognosticators to believe the U.S. economy could enter a recession in 2008. While many vital signs of the U.S. economy have remained quite healthy, the sub-prime lending crunch and a more sluggish housing market are two signals that pundits consider when determining the prognosis for the coming year. The chart below shows the Consumer Confidence Index on a monthly basis from January 2002. Although the numbers have been slipping in the last few months, 2007 levels have still been above the longer-term average.