Seatrade Maritime: The Force Awakens? US Lifts 40-Year Ban on Crude Exports

21 Dec 2015: “Poten’s analyst team, led by Erik Broekhuizen – perhaps writing after viewing the premier of the new Star Wars movie – took a very positive view. In a research piece titled: ‘The Force Awakens: US crude oil exports will change the oil and tanker market’. “Poten cites a September 2015 study by the US Department of Energy, which estimated that US crude oil exports could increase to around 1.5m bpd by 2020. On impacts for relative ship types, Poten says: ‘Once exports start flowing, aframax crude tankers will be the initial beneficiaries. If production continues to increase and pricing is favorable, suezmaxes and VLCCs may come into the mix (which would open up Asian markets). The impact on product carriers will depend very much on the relative competitiveness of the US Gulf refiners.’ “Not everybody wins, however. Poten cited possible negatives looming for the US flag Jones Act tanker market. Its Jedi warriors/researchers wrote: ‘The lifting of the US crude oil export ban will probably be a net negative for the US Jones Act market. This market did receive a boost from the coastwise transportation of crude oil in the past, but these movements, which already declined significantly in 2015, may disappear altogether.'”