Seatrade Global: Texas Tea Party for Suezmaxes and MR Tankers?

“There’s been a flurry of public offerings for shipping companies, and the Private Equity guys are closing in on some big deals that will be announced in the new year. Though the tanker brokers have some fabulous parties, and are entertaining their oil company clients who visit New York for the holidays, their research departments are hard at work. Poten & Partners (one of the few brokers remaining in midtown), which offers consistently good analytics, has written a provocative “opinion” piece. Ostensibly, Poten’s article celebrates the rally in the suezmax trades, based partly on a correlation with the VLCC trades, which have shown a strong finish to the year, and an increased number of suezmax cargoes moving from West Africa out to India- even as imports to the US, a “legacy” suezmax run, have been “crowded out” by US inland oil production. The report then turns to a politically charged topic, noting: “The silver lining for suezmaxes in the US crude oil production could develop if export restrictions are lifted.” The New York broker then goes on to point out that, were US crude exports to be sanctioned by the Department of Energy (and the US Department of Commerce- which issues export licenses), the suezmax would be an optimal size.”