Navigating Uncertainty

2 Mar 2018: Back in 2014, when oil prices were well above $100 per barrel, analysts regularly talked about a geopolitical “risk premium” to explain the high oil prices.  The theory is that geopolitical tensions, in particular those in oil producing countries or regions, can raise fears of supply shortages and push oil prices higher.  However, since the oil price collapse in 2014, the market has been awash in oil and the impact of geopolitical events on the oil markets has been muted.  This may be about to change.  More than a year after OPEC and select non-OPEC countries decided to cut back production and exports, global oil markets are rebalancing (despite runaway growth in U.S. production) and the synchronized growth in the major world economies has pushed up demand for oil and oil products.  At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the world have increased.  In today’s weekly opinion, we will review some of the key supply risks facing the oil markets and the impact potential disruptions may have on the tanker market. Please fill in the form to read the article