Financial Times: Coal-fired Power Plants to be Snuffed out Faster than Expected

“US Congress may not pass a climate bill this year, but that would not mean the environmental movement has lost its fight to cut coal use. On the contrary, there will almost certainly be a far more rapid retirement of coal-fired generation plants over the next five years than the market anticipates, and very likely a much more rapid rise in natural gas prices and imports. . . .The assumption has been that the US has an unlimited supply of shale gas at the present price of about $4-$5 per million British thermal units. But it does not. The gas people I know argue that without an increase to $8 or $9 per mBtu, the real costs of shale gas cannot be covered. That leaves liquefied natural gas imports. But would that much LNG be on offer in 2015? Poten & Partners, a shipping and LNG consultancy, says an increase in demand of 5bn mcf per day could be handled with the anticipated world export capacity. That would be somewhat less than required by the probable coal shutdowns. Any demand increase above that level would require new LNG plant construction by the exporters.”