A Goldilocks Outlook For Tankers?

12th Apr 2024:The tanker market is in a good place for the next several years The latest IEA Monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) which was published today was an interesting read. Tanker owners should be happy with the current market dynamics. Some of the key developments on the oil supply and demand side seems to be quite beneficial for tanker demand and hence supportive for tanker rates at least for the next two-three years. In this week’s Tanker Opinion, we will discuss some of these developments. First of all, oil demand keeps growing for the foreseeable future, albeit at a slower pace than in recent past. The April IEA OMR, which now includes an outlook for 2025, shows that global oil demand in 2023 was 2.3 Million barrels per day (Mb/d) higher than in 2022. The IEA considers 2023 the last year of the post-pandemic rebound and growth in 2024 (+1.2 Mb/d) and 2025 (+1.1 Mb/d) is expected to be considerably slower. The main reason for the slowdown in growth is China. According to the IEA, China made up 79% of the global demand increase in 2023. In 2024, China’s share in oil demand growth is expected to decline to 45% and in 2025 it slumps to 27%. Despite China’s growth slowdown, Asia/Pacific will continue to be the driver of global demand growth with 1.0 Mb/d in 2024 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2025. The Middle East and Africa will also consume more oil in the next few years. Oil demand in the OECD, by contrast, is declining and will continue to do so, especially in Europe. The IEA sees global oil demand growth returning to historical trend after the disruptions caused by Covid and the Russian invasion. Please fill below form to continue read.