Seatrade Maritime News: Has Tanker Tonne-Mile Increased?

8 Jun 2015: “With freight rates in the tanker shipping market displaying strength, especially since the world is experiencing only modest demand growth, analyst Poten & Partners has taken a closer look at what exactly are the key drivers for the increases in rates. “Poten & Partners scrutinised the reported spot fixture activity in the main crude tanker segments, and qualified that its fixture data is “good”, but it only covers reported spot market fixtures, not worldwide vessel movements. “The increase from 2009 to 2012 was attributed to the result of two rapidly developing long-haul trades: from West Africa to the Far East and from the Caribbean to Asia. ‘It is difficult to explain the downward trend in average VLCC distances after 2012,’ Poten & Partners said. “The fixture data seems to indicate that while the West Africa to Asia trade keeps growing, there has been a reversal in the VLCC traffic from the Caribbean to Asia (in particular to India). ‘We think that this is not a correct reflection of what is actually happening. Since many movements are done under long term contracts, we believe that an increasing number of the cargoes from the Caribbean are moving outside off the reported spot market,’ the analyst explained. “‘This can be partially attributed to the well documented decline in West Africa-US movements as a result of the domestic tight oil boom,’ Poten & Partners said. “Poten & Partners pointed out that while this had a considerable impact on aframax movements in the Mediterranean, in particular the ones originating from Libya, it did not have a material impact on the average distances for this segment. ‘In summary, the data from the average distance analysis is not conclusive and in some cases (suezmax) the trend appears to contradict the argument that an increase in average laden voyage length is a leading explanation for the high freight rates in the tanker market,’ the analyst said.”