Polar Express

Last month, retreating sea ice allowed two multipurpose heavy‐lift project carriers to complete a voyage through the Northeast Passage from South Korea, around the Russian Arctic, and on to Rotterdam. Beluga Shipping, the German company whose vessels completed the trip, called it the first non‐Russian commercial voyage through the route. Upon the trip’s completion, some commentators heralded the opened sea lane as a global warming’s “silver lining.” While news of the recent transit is newsworthy, claims that the Northeast Passage will transform trade routes in the near term are overblown. Complexities associated with Arctic navigation, including hull‐type and draft restrictions, added costs and unpredictability are likely to limit use of the route for the foreseeable future. Over the long term, however, the opening of the Northeast Passage may help shape future trade flows. As far as tankers are concerned, the location of oil is the key element.