Gaining Momentum

Jan 31st, 2025:Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is nearing full capacity This week, various publications reported that Nigerian gasoline imports are on track to reach their lowest levels since 2017. If the initial data proves correct and holds for the rest of the month of January, seaborne clean product imports will be around 164,000 b/d, of which 111,000 b/d is gasoline. There are several factors that contribute to this decline in imports, but the ramp up of the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery is the main driver. In this Weekly Opinion we will look at the implications for both the crude oil and the refined product markets of this massive new refining complex in Africa. The path towards completion for Africa’s largest refinery has not been easy. Nigeria’s businessman Aliko Dangote first unveiled plans for the 650,000 b/d refinery in September 2013 and it was almost 10 years later, in May 2023, that the project, noted as the world’s largest single train refinery, was launched. Production started in earnest in early 2024 and the current forecast is that the refinery will reach steady state operation at 650,000 b/d capacity sometime in 2026, at which point Nigeria could become a net-exporter of refined products. Building the refinery proved costly, as costs escalated from the initial estimate of $9 Billion in 2013 to approximately $19 Billion. Please fill in below form to continue read.