LPG Market Outlook: Mild Weather/Low Petchem Demand Impacting Imports

This current feature was extracted from the latest edition of Poten’s LPG Market Outlook, a monthly service published on January 16, 2024.

The LPG import forecast for the winter of 2023 and 2024 has been lowered in Europe and Northeast Asia as demand in both regions did not meet previous expectations in 4Q 2023. Additionally, imports for 1Q 2024 have been lowered.

Compared to the previous forecast, LPG imports this winter for Europe have been lowered by 300,000 t to 16.1 MMt in the current forecast. The winter LPG import forecast for Northeast Asia has been lowered by about 1.2 MMt to 27 MMt compared to the previous forecast. Mild weather has capped heating demand and lackluster petrochemical demand have been the main reasons for the drop in imports.

Operating rates in Europe are around 70% and PDH operating rates in China are around 60%. Moreover, both regions are seeing stagnant economic growth.

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