2015 Paris Climate Conference to Affect Imports into Largest LNG Markets

18 Oct 2016: In December 2015 at the Paris Climate Conference, 196 countries made pledges — most of them legally non-binding — to reach certain reduction targets for greenhouses gasses (GHG) emissions by 2030. As the threshold for agreement to enter into force was reached at the beginning of October this year, it is expected to enter into force on November 4, 2016. Previous attempts to implement similar agreements (Kyoto protocol, for example) were not very successful. Nevertheless, we see this event as potentially transforming the global energy industry as a whole and natural gas and LNG industries in particular. We analyzed possible implications of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by participating nations and regions on natural gas demand and LNG imports into six countries – Japan, South Korea, China, India, the United Kingdom and Spain. These countries cumulatively represented 70% of global LNG demand in 2015. Even without any influence of COP21, however, Poten forecasts that their cumulative share of global LNG demand would decrease to 64% by 2025, although in absolute terms it is expected to grow from 170 MMt in 2015 to 247 MMt in 2025. We analyzed a range of possible outcomes under multiple scenarios based on our Global LNG Outlook forecast and identified potential positive and negative deviations from it. Please fill out the form below to access article.